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Forum Index  >> About The Steelers >> Sepulveda trade analysis, 3 years after the fact
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Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 01:49 PM Post Subject
 SteelHack
Posts: 6204
quoting TheStallworthSwann:

quoting mac daddyo:


this year sep is back.  more return yards and again we are questioning the kick coverage units.   what is the one constant in the bad coverage years?   sep.   why is this????    

just saying we are actually getting less with sep then we were with berger.  


In 2008 when Sepulveda was out, the Steelers gave up 6.2 yards per punt return, with a long of 46 and no TDs.

In 2009 with Sepulveda back, the Steelers give up a very similar 6.7 yards per punt return, with a long of 26 and no TDs.

Sepulveda doesn't outkick the coverage or cause big returns.  He places the ball effectively, using distance as the circumstances dictate.


If I punt it straight to a D-lineman...the return yardage will be very low...1 or 2 yards per punt return....that does not mean the punt team is better.

Like they say....stats are like a bikini...what they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital

 

HACK


 

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Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 02:08 PM Post Subject
 Cru Jones
Posts: 907

WOW Steeler draft a punter 3 years ago and it still draws this much attention ..... Crazy.

Nice line  HACK!!

 

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Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 03:18 PM Post Subject
 numbah58
Posts: 2699
quoting mac daddyo:
as i have said in the past.  i hope he doesn't out kick the coverage.    say what you want about berger, but last year we didn't have any major returns.   was the coverage that much better??   i don't think so.   think back to sep's first year.    we had punts returned for TD's, we also had alot returned for big yards.    last year, shorter punts, thats for sure,but we ended up with just about the same net and no big returns or TD's.   this year sep is back.  more return yards and again we are questioning the kick coverage units.   what is the one constant in the bad coverage years?   sep.   why is this????      berger kicking in the thin air, will kick short 37 yards let's say, with a fair catch because the coverage is all over him.    sep booms one 55 yards,  with a 25 yard return, because our coverage units don't know if it's going 60 or 30.  what are we gaining for those two draft picks????????????????   just saying we are actually getting less with sep then we were with berger.   i'm not saying we bring back berger, just that longer is not always better in the punt game.  we were also pretty even with ones inside the 20 with berger or sep.   we have not gained much.   our opponants have out kicked us this year, and we have a specialized returner now.   i don't see what all the hubbub is about with sep.   is it he looks like a lb'er???   i don't hate the guy or anything, it's just about x's and o's.   not much of a diffrence, except for the TD's and field position we give up for those two draft picks. 

Did you watch Berger punt?

Bad punts at crucial times is all that I remember about 'Shank' Berger.

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Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 04:57 PM Post Subject
 cajunyankee
Posts: 2320


Sep is very dependable when he isn't injuryed. He always puts the ball either deep or inside the 10 or out of bounds. He has very good hands on FGs and PATs and has never messed that up.

This is something they knew about him when they drafted him. So what if it cost a 4th Rd pick and a late Rd pick which is a gamble anyway.

Further more does anyone remember that resounding Loud Applause he received his 1st game back. The Fans also love him. I even saw a Sep Jersey when I was at Disney this year.

I'm glad they got him.

 I'm more mad about the 3rd and 4th Rd picks that haven't panned out for us.

Cajun-

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Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 05:25 PM Post Subject
 7+83=7
Posts: 645
quoting mac daddyo:
as i have said in the past.  i hope he doesn't out kick the coverage.    say what you want about berger, but last year we didn't have any major returns.   was the coverage that much better??   i don't think so.   think back to sep's first year.    we had punts returned for TD's, we also had alot returned for big yards.    last year, shorter punts, thats for sure,but we ended up with just about the same net and no big returns or TD's.   this year sep is back.  more return yards and again we are questioning the kick coverage units.   what is the one constant in the bad coverage years?   sep.   why is this????      berger kicking in the thin air, will kick short 37 yards let's say, with a fair catch because the coverage is all over him.    sep booms one 55 yards,  with a 25 yard return, because our coverage units don't know if it's going 60 or 30.  what are we gaining for those two draft picks????????????????   just saying we are actually getting less with sep then we were with berger.   i'm not saying we bring back berger, just that longer is not always better in the punt game.  we were also pretty even with ones inside the 20 with berger or sep.   we have not gained much.   our opponants have out kicked us this year, and we have a specialized returner now.   i don't see what all the hubbub is about with sep.   is it he looks like a lb'er???   i don't hate the guy or anything, it's just about x's and o's.   not much of a diffrence, except for the TD's and field position we give up for those two draft picks. 
        God love you. Put down the pipe and jug Dude. Comparing Berger and Sep is like comparing Montana and Bubby Brister. Montana throws over the coverage and scores to fast where Bubby throws incompletions but scrambles and runs time off the clock so he's more valuable....although he loses. The Berger I watched had a bunch of SHANKS....which were not inside any 20. Also Sep is pinning people inside the 20 from our 30 where Berger was pinning people from the 50.
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Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 05:34 PM Post Subject
 AFan
Posts: 2777
quoting TheStallworthSwann:
quoting AFan:

Let's assume that TSS is right.   That the Steelers acquiring Sep in the 4th round on the 112 th pick was 'brilliant'. 

  The last 5 yrs, every pro-bowl punter was either undrafted or taken later than Sepulveda was.  I guess the drafts wer much deeper in those other years.    Those front office genius' in Oakland got a 4-time Pro-bowl punter in the 5th round. 

   I know, I know it's just a matter of time before Sep gets his Pro Bowl accolades.  But if that is true, is it not also too early to declare all the anomymous guys taken after Super Dan as 'stiffs'?   TSS has it both ways,  those other 3rd yr guys, taken after Sepulveda, stink (end of story), but Sepulveda, despite missing a yr and being (maybe) a top 10 punter, is simply greatness assured to his discerning eye.  Pay no attention to the the fact that the price paid to acquire him is higher than what other teams have paid for any of the recent Pro Bowl Punters.


This is the type of thinking that deljzc relies on as well.  That is, relying on largely irrelevant and meaningless statistics such as gross average and net average to judge individual punters and the overall worth of the punting position.  Lechler makes the Pro Bowl because he simply booms the ball to achieve maximum distance on kick after kick, and as a result regularly has a mammoth average as compared to other NFL punters.

What the Steelers drafted in Sepulveda, and what they get from Sepulveda, is what we might refer to as a superb situational punter who can be relied on not just to get distance when the situation calls for it, but to also put the ball where it needs to be put, when it needs to be put there. I don't and never have gotten all wrapped up in the notion of Sepulveda being some sort of tackling machine, and I doubt the Steelers ever have either.  Sepulveda doesn't need to ever make a Pro Bowl (which is based on gross and net average), because his value lies in what he can and does do in individual situations when the outcome of a game could be affected by where he puts the ball.

You don't make the Pro Bowl based on, for instance, having placed a punt on the opponent's 2 yard line in a crucial 4th quarter situation in a 1-point week 3 win, or kicking two out of bounds inside the 10 in key situations in a week 14 win; you make the Pro Bowl by having a 49.9 yard gross average.  But I'll take Sepulveda over a Lechler-type every time, because he's a punter who impacts field position in a more subtle yet meaningful way, and over the course of the season that matters in more than a few games.  I submit that, for example, in the Vikings game in week 7, Sepulveda played a key role that doesn't show up in the box score, which shows that DS punted 6 times, with a 41.3 yard gross average, and a 40.0 yard net average.  Are those Pro Bowl/Lechler numbers? Nope. But on those 6 punts Sepulveda impacted the game, and to the tune of more than 1 percent (or whatever silly number deljzc asserts that represents a punter's contribution to a game), because he affected Minnesota field position, even when it only amounted to a matter of yards in the Steelers favor, because in a tight game like that, every yard counts immensely.

 


         You got any data that Sep is any more adept at sticking the other team inside the 5 compared to those phony Pro-Bowl guys?  I'm open minded and willing to be convinced.   Dig through the game logs on NFL.com and make your case,  I'll be here to read it.

          In an NFL game, a football is snapped from center or placed on a tee between 125 and 150 times,  the Steelers punter gets on the field on avg about 4 times a game.  

           The idea that a punter affects field position is provable false.    The net yds difference between a top 10 punting team is less than 4 yds/punt  that of a bottom 10 punt team.   This includes the difference between having a top long snapper and and one that stinks, and a top coverage team and one that stinks.   At 4-5 punt/game were taking 20 yd difference in field position,  at  maximum.  Probably at least 1/2 of that is due to the coverage team and the returner in question.   A punter's contribution is probably about 1%.  Maybe less.  Teach Willie Colon to stop false starting and you've covered a whole bunch of difference between Seupulveda and Mitch Berger.      

              The difference between a top 10 offense or defense and a bottom 10 one is about 100 yd/game.  An Offense OR  a Defense decide field position by a least a factor of  5 more than the punter AND his coverage team.   Have both a top O and a top D, and they have 10X the impact. 

     That is why teams don't spend a lot of $$ on punter and that is why few teams draft a punter before the 5th round.   

   

    

    

        

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Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 05:42 PM Post Subject
 freakfontana
Posts: 4505
the best punter in the league is andy lee of the 49ers . we tryed to get him few years ago when he was rfa , but the niners matched our offer .
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Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 05:47 PM Post Subject
 AFan
Posts: 2777
quoting freakfontana:
the best punter in the league is andy lee of the 49ers . we tryed to get him few years ago when he was rfa , but the niners matched our offer .

        He was taken in the 5th round, and the 49ers didn't need to throw in a second pick to get him..  But I guess that's a tribute to the brilliance of their front office.
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Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 06:54 PM Post Subject
 newbert
Posts: 139
I agree with pretty much everything the poster said except for William Gay being a solid starter.
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Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 07:28 PM Post Subject
 mac daddyo
Posts: 4318
quoting 7+83=7:
quoting mac daddyo:
as i have said in the past.  i hope he doesn't out kick the coverage.    say what you want about berger, but last year we didn't have any major returns.   was the coverage that much better??   i don't think so.   think back to sep's first year.    we had punts returned for TD's, we also had alot returned for big yards.    last year, shorter punts, thats for sure,but we ended up with just about the same net and no big returns or TD's.   this year sep is back.  more return yards and again we are questioning the kick coverage units.   what is the one constant in the bad coverage years?   sep.   why is this????      berger kicking in the thin air, will kick short 37 yards let's say, with a fair catch because the coverage is all over him.    sep booms one 55 yards,  with a 25 yard return, because our coverage units don't know if it's going 60 or 30.  what are we gaining for those two draft picks????????????????   just saying we are actually getting less with sep then we were with berger.   i'm not saying we bring back berger, just that longer is not always better in the punt game.  we were also pretty even with ones inside the 20 with berger or sep.   we have not gained much.   our opponants have out kicked us this year, and we have a specialized returner now.   i don't see what all the hubbub is about with sep.   is it he looks like a lb'er???   i don't hate the guy or anything, it's just about x's and o's.   not much of a diffrence, except for the TD's and field position we give up for those two draft picks. 
        God love you. Put down the pipe and jug Dude. Comparing Berger and Sep is like comparing Montana and Bubby Brister. Montana throws over the coverage and scores to fast where Bubby throws incompletions but scrambles and runs time off the clock so he's more valuable....although he loses. The Berger I watched had a bunch of SHANKS....which were not inside any 20. Also Sep is pinning people inside the 20 from our 30 where Berger was pinning people from the 50.

you don't even realize this isn't about berger VS sep.   it's about us giving up more yardage and TD's with a longer kicker, then a shorter kicker.   although he and berger had near identical net average.  when you give a punt returner a 10-15 yard cushion bad things happen.    he has not put one out of bounds yet this year cajun.    TSS,how about seps 1st year and this year, to how many returns more he had then berger/ whoever the other guy was.    sep gives up 6.7 yards per.  that is pretty high as per league wide this year. i just see way too much cushion when he hits one.    it worries me about the denver game with the high alt. that he is going to boom them and give alot of cushion to there very elusive returner.   it will be even more evident this week.    i'd like to see him not boom them 55 yards , but rather hit one for 45 and stay up for about 2 minutes.  we could send casey as the gunner.  
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